Brisbane property · November 2026
The market has turned. Here’s where that leaves you.
For five years Brisbane property seemed to go only one way. Since May, values have been easing while interest rates kept rising. If you bought in the last few years, you may be feeling both at once. This is a plain-English read of where the market is, what the Reserve Bank and the economists are saying, how Brisbane’s past downturns played out, and what your options look like.
Louie Maxwell · Raine & Horne Brisbane WestUpdated 12 November 20268 minute read
The bigger picture
Zoom out before you zoom in
Over ten years, Greater Brisbane dwelling values have roughly doubled. Over five, they’re up by almost half. Over the past twelve months they’ve barely moved, and since the peak in May they’ve gone backwards.
If you’ve owned for five years or more, the fall since May has taken back some of your gain. If you bought in the past year or so, you may now be behind on paper.
Rates and the market
Five rate rises this year, and buyers have noticed
The Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate five times in 2026, from 3.60% to 4.85% on 3 November. That’s the highest it has been since 2008. Each rise flows through to variable repayments and cuts how much buyers can borrow, which is why values started easing in May, partway through the cycle.
- Jan3.60%
- Feb3.85%
- Mar4.10%
- May4.35%Brisbane values peak
- Sep4.60%
- Nov4.85%
Source: Cotality, October 2026 results.
Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Board · statement, 3 November 2026there are scenarios where inflation is higher and activity lower than forecast
In plain EnglishThe Reserve Bank isn’t promising November was the last rise. It doesn’t expect inflation to get back to the top of its target band until late 2027.
Tim Lawless · research director, Cotality, November 2026Buyers have a lot more stock to choose from, they have more leverage
In plain EnglishMore homes for sale and fewer buyers means each buyer can negotiate harder. Sellers are giving more ground to get a deal done.
We’ve been here before
How Brisbane’s last two big downturns played out
Brisbane has had falls before. They don’t all end the same way. What brings a downturn to an end matters as much as how far it drops.
April 2010 – January 2012
The slow one
Recovery was slow. The economy was soft after the GFC and the 2011 floods, and too many apartments were being built. Brisbane units were still 9.4% below their March 2010 high in March 2021, more than a decade later. The Reserve Bank started cutting rates in late 2011.
June 2022 – January 2023
The fast one
Recovery was fast. Brisbane hit a new record by October 2023, about nine months after the bottom, even though rates were still rising. Very few homes were for sale and people kept moving here. The fall was first reported as 10.9% and later revised to 8.9%.
May 2026 – now
This one, so far
Still going. Brisbane has already fallen nearly as far as in 2022, and at a faster pace than either earlier downturn. The difference is that rates were still rising as recently as November, and cuts aren’t expected until the second half of 2027.
Bars drawn to scale: fall from peak out of 12%, time falling out of 24 months. Sources: CoreLogic (now Cotality) 2021 and 2023 analysis; Cotality October 2026 results.
My read
The question is which of those this looks like. On supply, today looks more like 2022: Brisbane isn’t building enough homes, especially apartments, so there’s no glut to work through. On rates, it’s tougher than either, because the Reserve Bank was still lifting as recently as November. To me, that points to a downturn that could run longer than 2022, without the oversupply that held Brisbane back for years after 2010. I could be wrong, and so could everyone else, which is why the numbers further down matter more than any forecast.
What the experts expect
Where it could head, and roughly when
Nobody knows exactly. These are the published views of the people whose job it is to forecast, as of early November.
- 8 December 2026
The Reserve Bank’s last meeting of the year. All four major banks expect it to hold at 4.85%.
- Early 2027
Some risk of one more rise. ANZ and Westpac flag February as possible if inflation surprises. Neither has it as their main expectation.
- August 2027
First rate cut, on most forecasts. CBA, NAB and Westpac pencil in cuts from August. ANZ expects November.
- Late 2027
Inflation back near target. The Reserve Bank expects inflation to reach the top of its 2–3% target band around then.
Adam Boyton · head of Australian economics, ANZ, November 2026the cash rate is at, or close to, its peak
In plain EnglishANZ thinks rates have nearly finished rising. That’s not the same as falling. Their first cut is about a year away.
Luci Ellis · chief economist, Westpac, September 2026pencilling in three 25bp cuts starting August 2027
In plain EnglishThree cuts would bring the cash rate down 0.75%. On a $700,000 loan, if lenders pass it on in full, that’s roughly $350 a month off repayments, starting late next year.
Paul Bloxham · chief economist, HSBC Australia, July 2026the housing price correction is likely to continue for some time yet
In plain EnglishEven before the latest rises, HSBC expected values to keep easing into 2027 rather than bounce straight back.
Forecasts get overtaken. In September, Westpac expected Brisbane to fall about 4% from peak to bottom. By the end of October it had already fallen 8.3%. Treat every forecast here, including mine, as a guide rather than a promise.
The longer view
There’s no denying the direction Brisbane is heading
A downturn doesn’t change the reasons people keep moving here, or the shortage of homes for them to live in.
Federal projections have Queensland’s population growing by more than 16% by the 2032 Games, with most of that growth in Greater Brisbane.
Apartments a year CBRE expects Brisbane to complete to 2030, against demand for around 16,000 homes a year.
Cross River Rail, Brisbane Metro, Queen’s Wharf and the Olympic venues are reshaping the inner city, much of it close to the western suburbs.
Even after this year’s falls, values are roughly double what they were ten years ago. The long run is on your side. The question is whether your finances let you wait for it.
If you bought in the last few years
Four situations, and what usually helps
Most people I speak with fit one of these. Each has more than one sensible answer, and selling is only one of them.
The loan has crept up, but you’re ahead of where you bought
- Ask your lender or a broker to review your rate. Loyalty rarely gets you the best one.
- Extending the loan term or a short interest-only period can ease the monthly hit, though it costs more overall.
- If the stretch looks permanent, selling while your equity still covers the costs keeps the decision yours.
- If you’re upsizing, a softer market can help. When both homes have eased by a similar percentage, the dollar gap between them is smaller.
Timeframe: a refinance usually takes a few weeks. A sale takes around three months from first conversation to settlement.
Client story · upsizing from a unitRead the story
They wanted a bigger home and hoped to keep their unit as an investment. I introduced them to a broker, and they tried every way to make holding both work. In the end, it didn’t.
What worked was having their sale fully prepared and ready to go, then waiting. We didn’t advertise their unit until they’d found the right next home. Once they had, we ran a swift two-week campaign. They bought the new place and sold the unit, without months of carrying two properties or the risk of selling first and having nowhere to go.
The investment is draining the household budget
- Look at the investment on its own: rent, holding costs and what it’s worth now against what you paid.
- Selling the investment often takes more pressure off than selling your home, and you keep the place you live in.
- A tenanted unit can sell to another investor with the lease in place, so there’s no vacancy while it’s on the market.
- Check the building’s age, sinking fund and planned major works. Older complexes can bring special levies that change the maths of holding.
- Capital gains tax applies. Talk to your accountant before you decide, not after.
Timeframe: tenanted sales need extra lead time for inspections around the tenant. Allow a month before the campaign starts.
Client story · Toowong two-bedroom unitRead the story
Her body corporate had crept up to around $5,000 a year. She’d kept the rent below market, and the 50-year-old complex was reaching the age where big levies and major works start to arrive. She felt her money could work harder elsewhere.
I’d given her a price about nine months earlier, near the top of the market. We adjusted expectations to where the market had moved, and I quietly invited buyers through off-market to see if we could reach her target without spending on advertising. Two buyers through, two offers, and the tenants disturbed only three times. She sold for $756,000. Another unit in the same building sold through a full online campaign around then for $760,000, so after the marketing she saved, she came out about even.
Did we miss a little off the top of the market? Probably. She’d still had five years of strong growth, which is never guaranteed for the next five, and she sold on her terms.
You might owe close to what the home would sell for
- Selling now may not clear the loan once costs are paid, so it can lock in a debt rather than end one.
- If repayments are already a struggle, call your lender’s hardship team early. Payment pauses and reduced-repayment periods exist.
- Renting out a room, or the whole property, can bridge a gap while the market settles.
- Brisbane’s last two big downturns lasted 7 and 21 months. Holding through is often the strongest option.
Timeframe: talk to your lender now, before a payment is missed. Your options narrow once arrears start.
You’re fine for now, but you want to know where you stand
- Know your number. An accurate appraisal tells you what you’d realistically sell for today, not what an algorithm guesses.
- Run the buffer check below to see how much room you have if values ease further.
- Keep an eye on the December and February rate decisions. They’ll set the tone for 2027.
Timeframe: no rush. A check-in now and again in autumn is plenty.
My own decision
Why I bought in a falling market
My wife and I have just bought our next home, and we’re trying to hold on to our current one as an investment. I’m sharing this because I’d rather show you how I’m thinking than just tell you what to do.
We’re holding both because we believe in Brisbane’s long term. Everything in the longer view above is the reason: people keep moving here, and the city isn’t building enough homes for them. We’re prepared to carry two properties through a flat or falling patch so we’re still holding when the cycle turns.
Our position is easier than many. We bought our current home eight years ago, so we have more equity behind us than someone who bought in 2024 or 2025. If the numbers stop working, selling is still on the table for us too.
Buying and selling in the same market largely washes out. If the home you’re selling has eased, the one you’re buying has usually eased too. Our seller accepted an offer below what they’d hoped for, because buyers have more room to negotiate right now.
Could prices fall further after we bought? Yes. We decided the right property mattered more than trying to pick the bottom. Nobody knows where the bottom is until it has passed, and the right home rarely waits for it. We’re running the same numbers you can run below.
Your numbers, privately
Run a quick buffer check
This shows how your repayments have moved and how much room you’d have if you sold. The figures stay in your browser and are never sent anywhere. Example figures are filled in to start.
The real number
A calculator gives you a range. I’ll give you the figure.
I’ll walk through your property, show you what similar homes are actually selling for right now, and tell you what you’d walk away with. No obligation, and no pressure to list. Sometimes the best advice is to hold, and I’ll tell you if it is.